The Return of Turbulance <미래에셋증권> > 자료실

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작성자 가을의전설 댓글 0건 조회 6,927회 작성일 2018-04-09 15:55

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The return of turbulence

§Market is on a rollercoaster ride. We judge market turbulence to be driven by two key investment negatives, namely i) uncertain macroeconomic policy settings by President Jokowi ahead of the 2019 election and ii) escalating trade tensions between US and China.

üThe (in)visible hands: Despite his high approval rating, President Jokowi seems to play it safe ahead of the 2019 Presidential race. The current administration seems to be adopting structural price management strategy to secure 2nd term in the upcoming election (April 2019). However, we do not believe government will stretch its price intervention agenda beyond 2019.

üFeeling the pinch: We expect the trade tension between US and China to remain bumpy throughout the year. We note that the two leaders of the world’s largest economies are in fragile states and are exchanging powerful blows to secure their political objectives and the country’s support. We expect amplified turbulence going forward, however, stress that Indonesia will be fundamentally insulated from escalating trade tensions between US and China.

§It’s still winter in Jakarta’s capital market and sensible temperature is a lot colder than what headline suggests (top 10 market cap price performance -9.4% vs JCI -2.8%, YTD). We see low probabilities of the two risks evolving into a fundamental derailment scenario. However, we suspect that prevailing issues are likely to keep investment sentiment on alert mode. We think foreigners have deep pockets to sell and recommend investors to 1) take a bottom up approach in making investment decisions, and 2) focus on sectors with low-market cap weight (under owned by foreigners). Our key calls are: ANTM, BRPT, RALS, and HOKI

 

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  34회 다운로드 | DATE : 2018-04-09 16:09:54

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